I’ve been trading for exactly one month.  My first trade was Jan 15.  Today is Feb 14.  Thirty full days have passed.

My result is a very small increase in account value.  After various appropriate adjustments, the account value is $208.  At the start it was $200.

One over-arching theme is this, regarding asset values in general.   The prevailing direction is down.

In a spreadsheet, I have tracked certain assets that seemed like a good bet for increasing prices.  In short, they are among each day’s highest buy-sell ratio assets.

My list includes 22 assets, which includes a few duplicates.  (I’ve very interested in the duplicates. If they appear more than once on the high ratio list, I figure something good may be afoot.

On average, these asset prices are down 22 percent.  The older they are, the more down they are.  The oldest one is the worst one.  It is down 48 percent.

There is only one significant gainer on the list.  As of today it is up 10 percent.  That increase occurred in just two days.

Here’s my thumbnail interpretation.  First, of course the overall direction is down.  Crypto assets are quite easy to create.

The skeptical (or cynical) view is this.  Their primary (perhaps only) purpose in life is to enrich the creators.  They have no other utility.

So after they pop in an Initial Coin Offering, their fate is steady march to zero.  With only occasional head-face interruptions.

This implication to me is this: Don’t play for the rebound.  Generally speaking, when they’ve had their day, they’re.  Exceptions are rare.

Finally, the “however” is this.  The downward dynamics may be exclusive to a bearish market.  Which pretty much describes the overall market in the past month.

In a bull market, it may be all different.  I hope so.

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